Can the health system keep testing and treating through the malaria caseload? This page reads the real DHIS2 commodity feed for CAR — antimalarial stock and stockout-days — as operational resilience context. Data through Dec 2025.
Commodity signals are resilience context, not outbreak early-warning.
Within-district, stockouts do not lead malaria surges (the apparent link is a population-size artifact — CAR-INSIGHTS Finding 9). Read these maps as “where is the system fragile”, never as a forecast. Forecasting lives on the climate + models pages.
01Stockout reality
Antimalarial supply is worsening, RDTs sharpest
National stockout-days per district by commodity, 2023–2025, with what is on the shelf today.
RDT stockout-days / district
28.7202469.72025 +143%
The rapid diagnostic that gates every confirmed case more than doubled its downtime year-on-year.
Malaria RDTs69.7d
563.7K
units on shelf · Dec 2025 · 35 districts
52.8'23
28.7'24
69.7'25
mean stockout-days / district / yr
ACT (AL, all packs)55.7d
1.1M
units on shelf · Dec 2025 · 35 districts
83.8'23
56'24
55.7'25
mean stockout-days / district / yr
SP / IPTp62.6d
240.4K
units on shelf · Dec 2025 · 35 districts
109.7'23
68'24
62.6'25
mean stockout-days / district / yr
Artesunate (severe)188.8d
3.3K
units on shelf · Dec 2025 · 30 districts
228.7'23
166.8'24
188.8'25
mean stockout-days / district / yr
DHA-PPQ182.9d
2.7K
units on shelf · Dec 2025 · 31 districts
259.6'23
163.9'24
182.9'25
mean stockout-days / district / yr
02Where it bites
Stockout-days against malaria burden
Districts shaded by RDT stockout-days, read against caseload — a triage overlay, not a prediction.
RDT stockout-days vs malaria burden
None 15-45d 45-120d 120-300d 300d+
Batangafo-Kaboflagship break
490d
2450d
57.5K
The 490-day mean is inflated by one severe 2450-day break-month across 5 reporting months — the peak, not a chronic average. Read mean and peak together.
Highest RDT stockout
MEAN DAYS / MONTH1Batangafo-Kabo
490d
2Kemo
443d
3Bangui I
384d
4Mobaye-Zangba
256d
5Bimbo
92d
6Bossembele
67d
7Haute-Kotto
62d
8Paoua
62d
03Maternal vulnerability
Pregnant-women malaria and the IPTp chemoprophylaxis gap
Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) protects pregnant women from malaria — its stockouts are a direct maternal-health risk, not a caseload predictor.
Malaria burden in pregnancy
1.2M
total malaria cases in pregnant women (all years)
636.6K
283.4K
244
SP / IPTp supply position
240.4K
62.6d
21.1K
Worst SP/IPTp stockout, with pregnant-women malaria load
1Batangafo-Kabo14.0K preg. cases394d
2Bouca15.7K preg. cases303d
3Haute-Kotto29.0K preg. cases208d
4Mbaiki26.9K preg. cases148d
5Bocaranga-Koui18.2K preg. cases135d
6Kembe-Satema33.8K preg. cases122d
An operational vulnerability — where SP runs dry, women lose chemoprophylaxis. It is a resilience gap, not a signal that predicts case counts.
04Reference
Worst-stockout districts
Ranked by mean RDT stockout-days, with peak, SP/IPTp stockout, and malaria burden.
District commodity resilience
35 DISTRICTS · SORTED BY RDT STOCKOUTDistrictRDT mean/moRDT peakSP mean/moMalaria cases
Batangafo-Kabospike490d2450d394d57.5K
Kemospike443d3304d37d148.3K
Bangui Ispike384d4471d80d164.6K
Mobaye-Zangbaspike256d1434d111d92.3K
Bimbospike92d740d81d135.8K
Bossembelespike67d331d42d95.1K
Haute-Kottospike62d128d208d64.4K
Paouaspike62d185d55d152.2K
Kembe-Satema61d93d122d91.0K
Berberatispike51d116d17d97.1K
Bocaranga-Kouispike46d200d135d55.2K
Nanga-Boguilaspike44d346d8d93.8K
Sangha-Mbaere43d73d84d103.6K
Bouar -Baoro41d74d0d100.6K
Haut-Mbomou32d60d0d37.1K
National 2025 malaria caseload 3.5M · pregnant-women cases 1.2M. Commodity data is DHIS2 monthly logistics — a resilience layer, read alongside (never as) the forecasting engine.